Updated 11:10:43 AM ET · refreshes every minute
| Time (ET) | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Price | Outcome | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 10:59 AM | Relative weakness vs SPY | buy | $27.96 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The 3-day expiry with 104% IV implies a likely binary event before 2026-10-30, and no earnings date is confirmed in the inputs. The 2-day hold and expiry could leave the put exposed to an unpriced gap. Risks: Possible earnings or other binary event inside the holding window; Very short expiry with 104% IV means rapid time decay and large premium swings; Stock recently bounced from about $27.3 support, so a reversal could erase the setup vwap 28.017 · price 27.96 · changePct -1.6 · spyChangePct 0.47 | |
| Oct 27, 10:35 AM | VWAP rejection (intraday) | buy | $8.79 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The put would expire in 3 days with IV at 160% and delta -0.79, so premium is very sensitive to a small move and time decay is severe. The only headline is a routine neutral rating with a price target below the current price, which is not a thesis-changing event, but the position is a high-leverage short-dated bet on a tiny intraday VWAP signal. Risks: Expires in 3 days; time decay and 160% IV can erase premium quickly; Stock is about 8.79 vs a $10 strike, so the put is deep in-the-money but the 1-day exit rule conflicts with the short expiry; Earnings or other binary event date not provided in inputs; cannot rule out an imminent catalyst vwap 8.797 · price 8.79 · setupPct 83.33 · volRatio 1.43 · stopLevel 8.823 | |
| Oct 27, 10:00 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $16.10 | vetoed Claude: veto 85% | SOFI reported Q3 earnings beat and raised FY2026 and FY2027 guidance today, and the stock is up about 11% on the day, so the bearish RSI-2 fade is firing against a thesis-changing positive catalyst the rule cannot see. Risks: Earnings beat and guidance raise on 2026-10-27 is a fundamental upside catalyst, not a mean-reverting spike; Put position at $17 strike with 3 days to expiry and delta -0.79 has high gamma and premium decay risk against a rising stock; Price already near the 5% exit threshold relative to entry and momentum is positive rsi 92.09 · price 16.095 · trendSma 17.93 | |
| Oct 27, 10:00 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $623.86 | vetoed Claude: veto 62% | Today's breakdown coincides with Meta pricing an upsized $25B common stock offering, a dilutive capital event that explains the drop and often reverses after pricing. Offsetting news (NVIDIA and AMD investments, a raised price target) makes the move less clearly a trend break, and the 3-day expiry leaves little room for a thesis to play out. Risks: Offering-driven selling may reverse quickly after pricing, hurting the put; Strategic investments from NVIDIA and AMD could support the stock; Only 3 days to expiry, so theta and a small move could wipe out the premium price 623.86 · priorLow 627.86 · volRatio 3.08 · breakdownPct 0.64 | |
| Oct 27, 9:50 AM | Opening range breakdown | buy | $766.36 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The Fed's two-day meeting began today, so a rate decision is likely within the trade's one-day hold window, a binary macro event the opening-range rule cannot see. Approving a fresh short-SPY position into that catalyst adds unmodeled event risk. Risks: FOMC decision likely lands within the 1-day hold, so a sharp move could blow through the stop; Today's volume is still in progress, so volRatio of 1.21 may be unreliable; Put premium of about $1420 is at risk if the range breaks and reverses price 766.36 · riskPct 0.25 · rangeLow 767.12 · volRatio 1.21 · rangeHigh 768.265 | |
| Oct 27, 9:36 AM | Gap and go / fade (calls) | buy | $93.22 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | A 10-26 headline references Intel being 'ahead of Q3 earnings', so a binary event may land inside the 3-day life of these calls. Short-dated calls at 128% IV could lose most of their premium on an earnings move regardless of the gap direction. Risks: Q3 earnings date unconfirmed but possibly within the 3-day window before 2026-10-30 expiry; Very high IV (128%) means premium is inflated and vulnerable to crush after an event; Stop is only 1.39% away, so routine intraday noise could trigger it before the thesis plays out price 93.22 · gapPct 2.14 · riskPct 1.39 · stopLevel 91.92 · priorClose 90.53 | |
| Oct 27, 9:35 AM | Gap and go / fade (calls) | buy | $95.14 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF with extreme volatility (IV 154%) and a sharp multi-week drawdown, and headlines reference a 'High Earnings Bar' and 36% of S&P 500 earnings this week, so a semiconductor/AI sentiment shock or earnings-driven move is plausible within the 3-day holding window. The 2-contract, 3-day call on a 4.77% gap-up in a sharply falling leveraged product carries elevated binary-style risk. Risks: Sector earnings week (S&P 500 earnings and AI trade headlines) could reverse the gap quickly; Leveraged 3x ETF with 154% IV makes the option premium highly sensitive to reversals; Gap-up sits inside a downtrend from ~159 to ~82 over two weeks, so it may be a dead-cat bounce price 95.14 · gapPct 4.77 · riskPct 1.04 · stopLevel 94.155 · priorClose 90.71 | |
| Oct 26, 3:06 PM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $20.93 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The headline ties today's decline to positioning ahead of Q3 earnings, which likely fall within about 2 trading days, so the RSI-2 dip may reflect a binary event the rule cannot see. The position is a 53-day call that would also carry earnings-driven gap risk. Risks: Q3 earnings likely imminent; a miss could gap the stock through the -5% stop; Dip may be pre-earnings positioning rather than mean-reverting noise; Premium of about $1659 could be lost quickly on an adverse gap rsi 3.6 · price 20.93 · trendSma 20.86 | |
| Oct 26, 2:59 PM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $66.00 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | Today's bar is in progress and the 53-day put is a high-premium position with IV 39% and no earnings date given in the inputs; the breakdown is only 0.65% below the prior low on a projected volume ratio at the 1.5x threshold, so the signal is marginal. Headlines show an Instacart sale-process report involving Uber as a possible counterparty, which could drive a sharp spike and is not explained by the rule. Risks: Possible M&A-related spike from Instacart talks with DoorDash/Uber; Earnings date not provided; binary event may fall before expiry; Marginal breakdown and projected volume near threshold price 65.995 · priorLow 66.43 · volRatio 1.5 · breakdownPct 0.65 | |
| Oct 26, 2:59 PM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $74.24 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | Morgan Stanley downgraded Block (XYZ) to Equal-Weight today and cut its price target to $80, with a broader downgrade cluster in the same headlines. That is a downgrade cascade that may explain the drop, which the RSI-2 rule cannot see. Risks: Analyst downgrade may mark a fundamental re-rating rather than a temporary oversold dip; Long call with 53 days to expiry and delta 0.67 adds exposure to further downside; Earnings date not found in inputs; check for a binary event before 2026-12-18 rsi 7.47 · price 74.235 · trendSma 70.98 | |
| Oct 26, 2:59 PM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $22.49 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | PBR gapped down about 13% on 2026-10-26 (volume roughly 3-4x normal) on Lula's election win, a macro and political shock that changes Brazil equity fundamentals. RSI(2) is oversold because of that repricing, not a transient overreaction the rule can see. Risks: Political repricing may continue after the open, so the dip may not revert quickly; The -5% stop on shares would be hit quickly in a volatile tape, and the call's premium decays while it waits; Earnings or other binary events before the 2026-12-18 expiry are not confirmed in the inputs rsi 7.25 · price 22.485 · trendSma 18.45 | |
| Oct 26, 2:59 PM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $54.56 | vetoed Claude: veto 80% | PYPL reports Q3 earnings on 2026-10-27, one trading day away, per the 2026-10-26 headline, so the RSI(2) dip is a pre-earnings binary setup the rule cannot see. Morgan Stanley's Sell rating with a $45 target adds downside pressure. Risks: Earnings binary event within 1 trading day; a miss could gap the stock well below the $52.5 strike; Premium-heavy call (IV 41%) may lose value from post-earnings IV crush even if price holds; Morgan Stanley Sell rating maintained today, a negative analyst catalyst rsi 4.93 · price 54.56 · trendSma 49.78 | |
| Oct 26, 2:58 PM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $11.90 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | Today's breakdown is explained by the Lula election win and a sector-wide Brazil selloff, a news shock the rule cannot see, and the headline says VALE is trading ahead of earnings with no date given. A put entered after a sharp macro-driven drop risks a sharp rebound or an earnings reaction. Risks: Brazil ETFs crashed over 20% on a political shock that may already be priced in, so a relief rebound is possible; Earnings are referenced as upcoming but the date is unconfirmed and could fall inside the 32-day option life; Put is deep ITM (delta -0.79) with 34% IV, so premium is sensitive to a sharp reversal price 11.9 · priorLow 12.16 · volRatio 4.44 · breakdownPct 2.1 | |
| Oct 26, 10:12 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $137.91 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | A headline dated 2026-10-25 says Reddit's earnings report is imminent, so the breakdown signal is firing right before a binary event the rule cannot see. The put's 74% IV also means it is priced for a large move in either direction. Risks: Earnings report is imminent per headline; exact date not confirmed in inputs; Breakdown may reverse sharply on an earnings beat; Premium of about $2961 is high relative to a paper-account position if the move goes against the thesis price 137.91 · priorLow 141.71 · volRatio 2.75 · breakdownPct 2.68 | |
| Oct 26, 10:12 AM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $632.39 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The drop is tied to a $95B equity and forward-sale offering announced today, which is a thesis-changing dilution event the RSI rule can't see. Price also sits only about 0.1% above the 200-day SMA, so the trend filter is marginal. Risks: Dilutive $95B offering may keep pressure on the stock after pricing; Price is barely above the 200-day SMA, so the trend filter could flip; Earnings date not provided; a binary event could fall inside the 53-day option life rsi 2.33 · price 632.39 · trendSma 631.59 | |
| Oct 26, 10:00 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $12.01 | vetoed Claude: veto 72% | NU gapped down about 20% on 2026-10-26 (from 14.69 to 11.71) on the Brazil election shock and a sector-wide selloff, so the breakdown is explained by news the rule cannot see. Entering puts after a news-driven crash risks a sharp sector rebound that would trigger the 8% rebound exit almost immediately. Risks: Record-crash selloffs in Brazilian ADRs often partially reverse, which could trigger the 8% rebound exit quickly; Macro/political event risk could keep moving the stock in either direction, making the put's direction unreliable; CTO resignation headline adds some company-specific uncertainty, but its impact looks minor next to the macro move price 12.01 · priorLow 12.14 · volRatio 8.42 · breakdownPct 1.03 | |
| Oct 26, 10:00 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $32.71 | vetoed Claude: veto 75% | The breakdown is a news-driven gap from the Lula election win, which the headlines describe as a political shock, so the rule is firing on an event it cannot see and may be chasing a move that could partly rebound. Today's bar is still in progress, and the 5.35x volume ratio is a projection. Risks: Gap down of about 23% on a political event; a sharp rebound or stabilization is possible after the initial shock; Entry is after most of the move, so the put's remaining edge depends on continuation rather than the breakdown; Volume ratio is projected from an in-progress session and may overstate the signal price 32.71 · priorLow 35.98 · volRatio 5.35 · breakdownPct 9.09 | |
| Oct 23, 10:26 AM | Momentum breakout | buy | $88.41 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The breakout is a roughly 12% gap-up on unconfirmed press reports of SpaceX lease or acquisition talks for Crown Castle cell sites, a news-driven move the price-based rule cannot judge. Earnings were already reported on 2026-10-21, so no imminent earnings event applies. Risks: Unconfirmed SpaceX talks could fade, reversing the gap and the breakout; Gap-driven entry above the prior high leaves little margin before the 8% trailing stop; Long call at delta 0.74 with IV 34% amplifies the drawdown from a news reversal price 88.41 · volRatio 3.75 · priorHigh 83.26 · breakoutPct 6.19 | |
| Oct 23, 10:26 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $194.03 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The breakdown follows Q3 earnings on 2026-10-22 that beat expectations and raised full-year guidance, with Morgan Stanley, RBC, and Keybanc maintaining bullish ratings and raising or holding targets, so the drop is a post-earnings reaction the rule cannot see and the thesis for a further fall is weak. A 79% IV put bought after the earnings event also carries IV-crush and sharp-rebound risk. Risks: Post-earnings reversal or rebound against the put despite the stock breaking its 20-day low; IV crush after the earnings event could erode premium even if the price falls; Mixed analyst signals, including BTIG lowering its target to $250, add uncertainty price 194.03 · priorLow 210.88 · volRatio 4.44 · breakdownPct 7.99 | |
| Oct 22, 1:08 PM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $8.04 | vetoed Claude: veto 72% | Nokia reported Q3 beats (sales $5.93B vs $5.80B, EPS $0.10 vs $0.08) and guided Q4 sales above consensus with raised 2026 operating profit guidance today, so the 8.9% breakdown is on an earnings-day event that the bearish rule cannot see and the headlines contradict. Buying puts into a beat-and-raise is a thesis conflict. Risks: Earnings-day move may reverse or continue, and the cause of the drop is not explained in the headlines; Put premium is large at about $4420 with 57 days to expiry and IV at 57%; Post-earnings volatility may widen spreads and make fills costly price 8.04 · priorLow 8.82 · volRatio 3.11 · breakdownPct 8.9 | |
| Oct 22, 11:00 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $233.87 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The breakdown follows Q1 earnings released 10-21 that gapped LRCX down about 13% on guidance and supply-delay news, which the price rule cannot see. Several analysts kept Buy or Outperform ratings and Cantor called it a top pick, so a sharp post-gap rebound is plausible against a put. Risks: Post-earnings gap-down may partially reverse as analysts defend Buy ratings; Put costs about $3532 at 53% IV, so a modest bounce could erase the position; Momentum continuation is possible, but the trigger is news-driven rather than a technical breakdown price 233.87 · priorLow 259.17 · volRatio 2.2 · breakdownPct 9.76 | |
| Oct 22, 10:48 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $25.15 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The gap from $31.75 to $27.16 at today's open coincides with the same-morning CFO transition headlines, so the breakdown is news-driven rather than a pure technical move the rule can see. The put is also priced at 83% IV after a roughly 21% one-day drop, leaving the position exposed to a sharp rebound. Risks: Abrupt CFO exit to external consultant may be a thesis-changing negative, or the drop may already overshoot it; Post-capitulation rebound could hit the 8% rebound exit quickly on a high-IV long put; No earnings date provided in inputs; binary-event timing before 2026-12-18 expiry is unverified price 25.15 · priorLow 29.5 · volRatio 4.8 · breakdownPct 14.75 | |
| Oct 22, 10:48 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $75.15 | vetoed Claude: veto 85% | Today's drop from about $101 to $75 follows a Q3 earnings beat and raised FY2026 and FY2027 guidance, so the breakdown is driven by news that changes the thesis, and the strategy cannot see it. The bearish puts would be betting against a fundamental reset. Risks: Earnings and guidance raise announced today; the sell-off may be a post-event reaction the rule misreads; Put premium is high at 86% IV and the position would lose if the stock stabilizes or rebounds; Ophir Optics acquisition announced Oct 19 adds further event-driven uncertainty price 75.15 · priorLow 92.15 · volRatio 4.35 · breakdownPct 18.45 | |
| Oct 21, 3:07 PM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $65.20 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The breakdown follows Q3 results and guidance cuts today, a thesis-changing event the rule can't see, and analysts are maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings while lowering targets. Chasing a post-earnings drop with a 30-day put at elevated IV carries rebound and volatility-crush risk. Risks: Post-earnings reversal or rebound from 2-year lows; Implied volatility may compress after the event, hurting the put; Momentum entry is chasing a gap move already priced on news price 65.195 · priorLow 66.54 · volRatio 2.14 · breakdownPct 2.02 | |
| Oct 21, 11:58 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $223.21 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The stock rallied from about $216 to $223 on no thesis-changing news, and the headlines are routine loan participation and community items. The bearish RSI-2 signal sits against the broader analyst picture, with several targets cut recently but Evercore keeping Outperform, and the bearish rule has a 5% stop that a put position can't clearly absorb. The veto reflects a weak setup in a stock that may be trending up, not a concrete news or data break. Risks: Price is trending up toward recent highs; overbought RSI can persist in a rally; Analyst price-target cuts are mixed; Evercore still rates Outperform; Put cost of about $3864 is large relative to a paper account's position sizing; No earnings date given in inputs; binary event before 2026-12-18 expiry is unverified rsi 91.74 · price 223.205 · trendSma 224.75 | |
| Oct 21, 11:20 AM | Momentum breakout | buy | $232.98 | vetoed Claude: veto 72% | The breakout is driven by the Q3 earnings beat and guidance raise announced today, a thesis-changing event the rule can't see. Buying calls into a post-earnings spike also risks IV crush on the 33% IV option. Risks: Earnings-driven spike; the move may already reflect the news; Post-earnings IV crush could erode call premium even if price holds; Volume ratio is projected from a session still in progress price 232.98 · volRatio 1.93 · priorHigh 232.94 · breakoutPct 0.02 | |
| Oct 21, 11:01 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $21.94 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The breakdown is an earnings-day gap: AT&T beat and raised FY2026 guidance, but the stock fell on subscriber-addition concerns, Starlink competition, and a Q4 EBITDA hit. Entering puts after a news-driven gap chases a move the rule can't distinguish from a post-earnings reversal. Risks: Mixed news (beat-and-raise vs. subscriber miss) makes post-earnings direction uncertain; Gap-down entries can mean-revert, and the 8% rebound exit could trigger quickly; Deep ITM $23 put at delta -0.64 costs about $4,619 with limited room if the stock bounces price 21.935 · priorLow 21.97 · volRatio 1.59 · breakdownPct 0.14 | |
| Oct 21, 11:01 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $21.03 | vetoed Claude: veto 72% | The RSI(2) spike follows a Q3 earnings beat (EPS $0.51 vs $0.47), reaffirmed buyback target, and analyst price-target raises, so the move is news-driven and the bearish mean-reversion thesis is likely misreading it. Shorting into post-earnings momentum is a poor fit. Risks: Post-earnings drift could extend the rally against the puts; Put premium of about $4660 at delta -0.72 is a large paper position on a news-driven move; Analyst target changes are mixed, so the direction of the reaction is uncertain rsi 96.3 · price 21.03 · trendSma 21.24 | |
| Oct 21, 10:31 AM | Momentum breakout | buy | $211.04 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The breakout is driven by Q3 earnings reported 2026-10-20 (EPS $6.69 vs $5.50 estimate) and analyst price target raises, a news-driven thesis change the rule cannot see. Chasing a post-earnings gap-up with a 58-day call at delta 0.73 also carries elevated reversal risk. Risks: Post-earnings gap-up may fade or retrace, especially with the stock near the $211 breakout high; Premium of about $3400 is at risk on a 7% move against the position with leverage; Earnings-driven move already priced in by analyst upgrades and target raises price 211.04 · volRatio 2.01 · priorHigh 203.84 · breakoutPct 3.53 | |
| Oct 21, 10:21 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $385.26 | vetoed Claude: veto 72% | Tesla is reporting earnings imminently (headlines say 'ahead of earnings' on Wednesday 10-21), a binary event well within the 2-day window. A reported possible SpaceX merger or $420 bid could also lift the stock toward the put strike, which the RSI rule can't see. Risks: Earnings reaction could gap the stock sharply higher; SpaceX merger or $420 bid headlines could pin or lift TSLA near the strike; Premium is about $4586 on a single long put with delta -0.66 and IV 41% rsi 91.69 · price 385.255 · trendSma 386.9 | |
| Oct 21, 10:09 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $243.68 | vetoed Claude: veto 85% | IBM reports Q3 earnings after the close today (Oct 21), so the RSI-2 signal would be entering a binary event within one day. The stock has also run up from about $222 to $243.68 into the print, so the outcome is a coin-flip on news the rule cannot see. Risks: Earnings after the close today: a gap in either direction could overwhelm the mean-reversion thesis; Premium of about $3372 could be largely lost to an IV crush or an upside surprise; Headlines show consensus EPS near $2.86-2.87 and revenue near $16.8B, so a beat would likely push the stock higher against the put rsi 94.77 · price 243.675 · trendSma 248.53 | |
| Oct 16, 10:12 AM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $33.27 | vetoed Claude: veto 80% | The RSI dip is driven by an ongoing export-control case involving a Super Micro contractor, a thesis-changing legal overhang that the rule cannot see, and the stock has fallen from about 44.9 to 33.3 in a week. Earnings timing is not in the inputs, and the 35-day call with 82% IV adds further binary risk. Risks: Ongoing export-control guilty plea and case involving Nvidia AI servers to China could drive further downside; Sharp multi-day decline with steep drawdown may continue, and the -5% stop is hard to hold on a call; Earnings or other binary event before 2026-11-20 not confirmed in inputs; 82% IV implies large move risk rsi 0.45 · price 33.265 · trendSma 32.48 | |
| Oct 16, 10:01 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $33.60 | vetoed Claude: veto 80% | Halliburton reports Q3 earnings on Oct. 20, which is within about two trading days, so a binary event could drive a sharp move the RSI rule cannot see. The position is also a 35-day put that would carry this event risk through expiration. Risks: Q3 earnings on Oct. 20 could gap the stock sharply in either direction; A beat or guidance raise could reverse the overbought setup against the put; Analysts expect 59 cents EPS and $5.58B revenue, so a surprise could move the price quickly rsi 98.84 · price 33.6 · trendSma 35.41 | |
| Oct 15, 11:17 AM | Momentum breakout | buy | $124.10 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | Recent analyst moves are split (Morgan Stanley overweight with $132 target vs Wells Fargo underweight at $91), and the 10/12 jump was driven by analyst headlines, which the breakout rule cannot distinguish from organic strength. The UK online-marketplace VAT crackdown headline is also a possible thesis-relevant regulatory risk, and a 36-day 0.64-delta call with 41% IV carries high premium decay and binary exposure to the 2026-11-20 expiry window. Risks: Analyst-driven move with conflicting upgrade and downgrade; UK VAT crackdown on marketplaces could pressure sentiment; Call premium decay and IV risk over 36 days; earnings date not confirmed in inputs price 124.1 · volRatio 2.04 · priorHigh 118.78 · breakoutPct 4.48 | |
| Oct 15, 11:05 AM | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | buy | $243.68 | vetoed Claude: veto 80% | Today's bar is up about 2% (243.675 vs prior close 238.25) on a sharp gap-up open, and the stock is already rallying with RSI(2) near 98, so the bearish mean-reversion setup is fighting momentum. Headlines are generic and contain no thesis-changing news, but a put position with 3 contracts and only a 5% stop-out rule carries meaningful squeeze risk. Risks: Gap-up momentum could extend the rally and trigger the 5% stop quickly; Price is below the 200-day SMA context, but the 283 trend level suggests a long-term bearish frame that may not capture a reversal; Headlines are non-material, so no clear news explanation for the move rsi 98.09 · price 243.675 · trendSma 283.09 | |
| Oct 15, 11:05 AM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $22.08 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The signal's RSI value of 0.26 is on an implausible scale for RSI(2), which suggests a units or data error that could be firing the entry. The recent drop also tracks a macro shock (hot CPI and rate-hike fears), not a company-specific thesis check. Risks: RSI reported as 0.26 may be a scaling bug, so the entry trigger is unverified; Selloff driven by macro inflation and rate-hike repricing, which can persist beyond a 2-day reversion; Long-dated calls at 74% IV carry heavy theta and vega exposure if the reversion stalls rsi 0.26 · price 22.08 · trendSma 21.41 | |
| Oct 15, 10:02 AM | RSI-2 mean reversion | buy | $75.95 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The selloff from about $85 to $75.9 lines up with ongoing news that changes the thesis: Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport, a delayed Saudi launch, and jet fuel costs that IATA says will halve airline profits. Price also sits just above its 200-day trend SMA (75.81), so a further drop would break the filter. Risks: Geopolitical and fuel-cost shock is unresolved and could extend the decline; Price is barely above trend SMA, so the trend filter may fail quickly; RSI input of 0.22 looks like a scaling issue, so verify the indicator data rsi 0.22 · price 75.945 · trendSma 75.81 | |
| Oct 15, 10:02 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $8.94 | vetoed Claude: veto 60% | The breakdown follows an $850M convertible notes offering that was already priced on 2026-10-14, so the overhang is partly absorbed and the rule is chasing a news-driven flush after a roughly 45% drop in three sessions. Rebound risk is high, and the signal is firing on a move the rule cannot distinguish from a completed offering. Risks: Post-pricing relief rally could hit the 8% rebound exit quickly; Put is already deep in the money with IV at 118%, so premium is exposed to sharp mean reversion; Further dilution or AI data center news could extend the decline, but the headlines do not establish a clear new thesis change price 8.94 · priorLow 9.81 · volRatio 2.2 · breakdownPct 8.82 | |
| Oct 15, 10:01 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $50.75 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The breakdown is driven by a company-specific negative event (Neutron first launch delayed to 2027 over manufacturing defects), and several firms reiterated Buy or Overweight with targets of $90 to $122, so a sharp news flush may partly rebound. The 83% IV and 36-day put cost also leave little room for a snapback. Risks: Neutron delay news is already priced in, so the stock could rebound and trigger the 8% rebound exit; Analyst targets far above $50.75 may attract dip buying; Today's volume ratio is projected from a session still in progress, so the 3.33x signal may be overstated price 50.75 · priorLow 58.85 · volRatio 3.33 · breakdownPct 13.76 | |
| Oct 15, 10:01 AM | Momentum breakdown (puts) | buy | $26.78 | vetoed Claude: veto 70% | The breakdown is driven by sector-wide neocloud selloff, rate-hike fears and CoreWeave bond yield spikes, which are thesis-relevant macro news the rule can't see, and the bearish puts are a high-IV, near-the-money bet after a ~38% drop from early October where a rebound is plausible. Also the 5.3x volume and gap-down today may partly reflect a single session still in progress. Risks: Stock already fell ~38% in two weeks; shorting into a capitulation-style move risks sharp rebound; Sector news and CRWV bond yield dynamics could reverse quickly; Premium around $4758 at 100% IV is expensive with 43 days to expiry; no earnings date given in inputs, so binary event check is unverified price 26.775 · priorLow 30.39 · volRatio 5.31 · breakdownPct 11.88 |
Closed trades
| Closed (ET) | Symbol | Strategy | Bought | Sold | P&L | R | vs SPY | Best / worst | Held | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 10:59 AM | $53 call · 2026-10-30 Energy | Opening range breakout | 11 @ $1.45 Oct 27, 9:50 AM | $0.94 | -35.17% -$561.00 | -0.70R | -35.46% | +0.0% / -35.2% | 1d | underlying stop |
| Oct 27, 10:49 AM | $212.5 call · 2026-10-30 Energy | Gap and go / fade (calls) | 1 @ $10.85 Oct 27, 9:35 AM | $14.65 | +35.02% $380.00 | 0.70R | +34.95% | +35.0% / +0.0% | 1d | underlying target |
| Oct 27, 9:34 AM | $70 call · 2026-12-18 Health Care | RSI-2 mean reversion | 4 @ $9.80 Oct 26, 10:02 AM | $9.60 | -2.04% -$80.00 | -0.04R | -2.63% | +0.0% / -2.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 27, 9:34 AM | $185 put · 2026-12-18 Technology | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 1 @ $44.30 Oct 23, 10:26 AM | $37.60 | -15.12% -$670.00 | -0.30R | -16.24% | +0.0% / -15.1% | 2d | trailing stop |
| Oct 26, 9:49 AM | $55 put · 2026-12-18 Consumer Discretionary | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 6 @ $6.60 Oct 22, 1:08 PM | $6.30 | -4.54% -$180.00 | -0.09R | -4.65% | +0.0% / -4.5% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 26, 9:45 AM | $450 call · 2026-11-20 Energy | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $40.30 Oct 21, 12:10 PM | $34.70 | -13.90% -$560.00 | -0.28R | -12.67% | +0.0% / -13.9% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 26, 9:43 AM | $330 put · 2026-11-20 Consumer Discretionary | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 2 @ $21.15 Oct 20, 10:07 AM | $16.10 | -23.88% -$1,010.00 | -0.48R | -23.11% | +0.0% / -23.9% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 23, 11:40 AM | $155 put · 2026-12-18 Consumer Staples | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 2 @ $22.75 Oct 21, 10:00 AM | $19.20 | -15.60% -$710.00 | -0.31R | -14.60% | +0.0% / -15.6% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 23, 10:53 AM | $105 put · 2026-11-27 Technology | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 1 @ $26.80 Oct 22, 11:22 AM | $24.55 | -8.40% -$225.00 | -0.17R | -8.22% | +0.0% / -8.4% | 2d | trailing stop |
| Oct 23, 10:25 AM | $105 put · 2026-11-20 Industrials | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 5 @ $9.25 Oct 21, 10:00 AM | $6.85 | -25.95% -$1,200.00 | -0.52R | -24.48% | +0.0% / -25.9% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 22, 1:07 PM | $65 call · 2026-12-18 Basic Materials | RSI-2 mean reversion | 6 @ $6.95 Oct 21, 10:12 AM | $4.65 | -33.09% -$1,380.00 | -0.66R | -32.27% | +0.0% / -33.1% | 2d | underlying stop |
| Oct 22, 11:14 AM | $100 put · 2026-11-20 Consumer Discretionary | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 4 @ $10.40 Oct 21, 3:07 PM | $11.50 | +10.58% $440.00 | 0.21R | +11.75% | +10.6% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 22, 10:47 AM | $260 call · 2026-11-20 Technology | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $43.80 Oct 21, 10:00 AM | $30.90 | -29.45% -$1,290.00 | -0.59R | -28.43% | +0.0% / -29.5% | 2d | underlying stop |
| Oct 21, 3:06 PM | $40 put · 2026-11-20 Consumer Discretionary | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 12 @ $3.80 Oct 15, 10:02 AM | $3.15 | -17.11% -$780.00 | -0.34R | -17.74% | +0.0% / -17.1% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 21, 1:33 PM | $165 put · 2026-11-20 Industrials | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 1 @ $28.60 Oct 15, 10:02 AM | $21.70 | -24.13% -$690.00 | -0.48R | -25.02% | +0.0% / -24.1% | 2d | trailing stop |
| Oct 21, 11:33 AM | $685 call · 2026-11-20 Technology | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $42.85 Oct 20, 10:55 AM | $51.95 | +21.24% $910.00 | 0.42R | +21.20% | +21.2% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 21, 10:08 AM | $320 put · 2026-12-18 Health Care | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 1 @ $33.20 Oct 19, 10:00 AM | $28.70 | -13.55% -$450.00 | -0.27R | -13.91% | +0.0% / -13.6% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 21, 9:50 AM | $105 call · 2026-11-20 Telecommunications | RSI-2 mean reversion | 5 @ $8.60 Oct 15, 11:18 AM | $7.10 | -17.44% -$750.00 | -0.35R | -17.47% | +0.0% / -17.4% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 21, 9:46 AM | $180 call · 2026-11-20 Technology | RSI-2 mean reversion | 3 @ $12.50 Oct 15, 11:15 AM | $10.30 | -17.60% -$660.00 | -0.35R | -17.59% | +0.0% / -17.6% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 21, 9:39 AM | $450 call · 2026-12-18 Technology | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $37.10 Oct 20, 10:29 AM | $35.90 | -3.23% -$120.00 | -0.06R | -3.13% | +0.0% / -3.2% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 21, 9:31 AM | $330 call · 2026-11-20 Industrials | RSI-2 mean reversion | 2 @ $21.80 Oct 15, 11:05 AM | $22.50 | +3.21% $140.00 | 0.06R | +3.23% | +3.2% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 20, 10:30 AM | $530 call · 2026-11-20 Technology | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $38.25 Oct 16, 10:01 AM | $37.70 | -1.44% -$55.00 | -0.03R | -1.43% | +0.0% / -1.4% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 20, 10:28 AM | $705 call · 2026-11-30 Broad market ETF | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $32.66 Oct 15, 10:03 AM | $32.72 | +0.18% $6.00 | 0.00R | -0.43% | +0.2% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 20, 10:06 AM | $400 call · 2026-11-20 Technology | RSI-2 mean reversion | 1 @ $25.85 Oct 16, 10:12 AM | $29.20 | +12.96% $335.00 | 0.26R | +13.31% | +13.0% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 19, 12:08 PM | $57.5 put · 2026-11-20 Real Estate | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 20 @ $2.20 Oct 16, 3:02 PM | $2.45 | +11.36% $500.00 | 0.23R | +10.55% | +11.4% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 19, 9:40 AM | $22.5 put · 2026-11-20 Consumer Discretionary | RSI-2 overbought (puts) | 26 @ $1.78 Oct 15, 11:41 AM | $2.22 | +24.72% $1,144.00 | 0.49R | +25.09% | +24.7% / +0.0% | 2d | mean reverted |
| Oct 16, 3:01 PM | $70 call · 2026-11-27 Broad market ETF | RSI-2 mean reversion | 6 @ $6.90 Oct 16, 10:01 AM | $4.15 | -39.85% -$1,650.00 | -0.80R | -38.52% | +0.0% / -39.9% | 1d | underlying stop |
| Oct 15, 3:09 PM | $120 put · 2026-11-20 Technology | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 1 @ $30.70 Oct 15, 10:02 AM | $23.40 | -23.78% -$730.00 | -0.48R | -24.41% | +0.0% / -23.8% | 1d | underlying stop |
| Oct 15, 2:17 PM | $80 put · 2026-11-20 Finance | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 2 @ $17.50 Oct 15, 10:03 AM | $12.75 | -27.14% -$950.00 | -0.54R | -27.52% | +0.0% / -27.1% | 1d | underlying stop |
| Oct 15, 12:45 PM | $200 put · 2026-11-27 Technology | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 1 @ $44.15 Oct 15, 10:02 AM | $33.00 | -25.25% -$1,115.00 | -0.51R | -25.68% | +0.0% / -25.3% | 1d | underlying stop |
| Oct 15, 11:14 AM | $125 put · 2026-11-20 Technology | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 1 @ $35.20 Oct 15, 10:01 AM | $28.75 | -18.32% -$645.00 | -0.37R | -18.80% | +0.0% / -18.3% | 1d | underlying stop |
| Oct 15, 10:52 AM | $13 put · 2026-11-20 Finance | Momentum breakdown (puts) | 15 @ $3.20 Oct 15, 10:01 AM | $2.59 | -19.06% -$915.00 | -0.38R | -19.29% | +0.0% / -19.1% | 1d | underlying stop |